Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 28.653846 31.710409 35.114697 39.218966 44.075893 49.695273 56.770678
2025-07-20 23.745938 27.699996 32.477159 38.792788 47.113467 57.996468 73.850466
2025-07-27 20.291088 24.688519 30.368458 38.502193 50.333001 67.809892 97.653857
2025-08-03 17.206788 21.601536 27.573271 36.684388 51.081499 74.800726 122.169328
2025-08-10 15.417441 19.938992 26.391824 36.884605 54.981840 88.711381 170.701785
2025-08-17 14.027168 18.614730 25.451393 37.236363 59.349831 106.180237 249.554534
2025-08-24 12.888162 17.488762 24.610553 37.555257 63.875457 127.420912 383.371834
2025-08-31 11.952803 16.541579 23.890813 37.918047 68.737090 154.033793 637.634895
2025-09-07 11.131989 15.668171 23.151411 38.072783 73.316633 185.293885 1163.424164
2025-09-14 10.533525 15.077879 22.801985 38.917763 80.084101 234.002131 2954.206363
2025-09-21 10.032765 14.588787 22.554318 39.920366 87.948532 303.428670 15716.646047
2025-09-28 9.595361 14.156929 22.345059 40.963751 96.725210 403.558482 NaN
2025-10-05 8.926476 13.313158 21.344705 40.206998 100.413828 498.024973 NaN
2025-10-12 8.429265 12.732980 20.800487 40.506522 108.696481 694.311696 NaN
2025-10-19 7.972330 12.184752 20.255646 40.718904 117.445701 1013.304222 NaN
2025-10-26 7.407809 11.391827 19.113821 39.088840 117.409910 1231.867782 NaN
2025-11-02 7.070455 10.991447 18.748524 39.552130 128.232270 2091.393731 NaN
2025-11-09 6.772457 10.637959 18.438019 40.115404 140.875123 4257.234551 NaN
2025-11-16 6.496067 10.301182 18.120860 40.594252 154.397682 11742.736983 NaN
2025-11-23 6.245312 9.992500 17.827692 41.088426 169.596665 84767.259532 NaN
2025-11-30 6.001223 9.676832 17.479703 41.323766 184.227220 NaN NaN
2025-12-07 5.818623 9.468636 17.357735 42.322421 208.303410 NaN NaN
2025-12-14 5.656966 9.289270 17.282079 43.490411 238.464111 NaN NaN